UK general election opinion polls tracker: Labour significantly ahead of Tories as campaign continues

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Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has called nan adjacent UK wide predetermination for 4 July 2024.

After 14 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer’s Labour has been consistently up successful nan polls since nan commencement of 2022.

The Guardian is search latest polling averages, originated from each awesome British polling companies, until predetermination day.

Current voting intention

Average of polls complete a moving 10-day period, showing GB voting volition

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Voting volition complete time

Latest mean of each polls complete a moving 10-day period, showing Great Britain voting intention

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The Scottish National statement (SNP) is not included successful nan information nan Guardian is utilizing successful nan floor plan above. In Great Britain-wide polls, nan SNP ballot sits betwixt 2% and 4% of nationalist ballot share. But its geographical attraction successful Scotland intends it will triumph galore much seats than different mini parties pinch a akin nationalist ballot share, specified arsenic nan Greens. Targeted Scotland-only polls springiness a overmuch amended denotation of really good it will do successful nan adjacent predetermination than nan nationwide polls above.

Polls only spell truthful acold successful predicting who will triumph successful nan UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system. What matters is nan number of seats each statement wins successful parliament, which is decided by individual races successful 650 constituencies.

What nan latest polls could mean for parliament

Seat projections from Electoral Calculus

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Guardian graphic. Source: Electoral Calculus. undefined Published 1 Jan 1970.

Seat predictions differ, but nan 1 we show supra is from nan pollster Electoral Calculus. It conducts its ain polls, successful which it besides gathers demographic information from nan group it surveys.

This information is fed into a mathematical model, called a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model, pinch nan extremity of estimating nan relationship betwixt characteristics specified arsenic age, gender and nan area wherever a personification lives, and which statement they will ballot for.

Matching this up pinch information astir what types of group unrecorded successful different UK constituencies, Electoral Calculus predicts which statement will travel apical successful each constituency.

How meticulous are spot projections?

In Britain’s first-past-the-post strategy nan numbers successful nan polls do not correlate cleanly to seats because it depends wherever votes are located. Describing spot projections from wide polling arsenic a “loose yardstick”, Rob Ford, a professor of authorities astatine nan University of Manchester, said: “Labour could get a lead of 15 points and not person a majority, a lead of 10 points and person a majority. It depends wherever those votes are.”

If nan predetermination is close, nan polls go little predictive of nan outcome. Other limitations of projecting spot counts from nationalist polling see nan truth that nan Lib Dem spot count is difficult to infer from nationalist polling because, while their nationalist support is overmuch little than nan 2 main parties, successful definite constituencies they person a important presence. Nor is nationwide polling very informative astir what will hap successful Scotland, and polls location are much infrequent.

Notes connected nan data

The floor plan shows a rolling 10-day mean for nan support of each statement based connected Great Britain-wide polls. This excludes Northern Ireland, which has different governmental parties. On immoderate fixed day, nan Guardian useful retired nan mean support for each statement crossed immoderate canvass published successful nan preceding 10 days. Only polling companies that are members of nan British Polling Council are included.

Starting 4 June, YouGov changed their polling methodology which they said could lead to smaller Labour leads owed to nan effects of tactical voting.

The spot projections are originated monthly from Electoral Calculus, which applies a exemplary to polling and demographic information to estimate nan number of seats each statement whitethorn win. They update this projection monthly.

Illustrations by Sam Kerr. Additional investigation by Gabriel Smith, Emma Russell and Lily Smith.

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Source theguardian
theguardian